Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics
Fiscal foresight—the phenomenon that legislative and implementation lags ensure that private agents receive clear signals about the tax rates they face in the future—is intrinsic to the tax policy process. This paper develops an analytical framework to study the econometric implications of fiscal foresight. Simple theoretical examples show that foresight produces equilibrium time series with a ...
متن کاملFiscal Foresight: Analytical Issues
Fiscal foresight—the phenomenon that legislative and implementation lags ensure that private agents know the tax rates they face in the future—is intrinsic to the tax policy process. Although acknowledged in empirical work, theoretical analysis of its implications is scant. This paper develops an analytical framework to study the econometric implications of fiscal foresight. A simple example sh...
متن کاملQuantitative Effects of Fiscal Foresight
Changes in fiscal policy typically entail two kinds of lags: the legislative lag— between when legislation is proposed and when it is signed into law—and the implementation lag—from when a new fiscal law is enacted and when it takes effect. These lags imply that substantial time evolves between when news arrives about fiscal changes and when the changes actually take place—time when households ...
متن کاملFiscal Foresight and the Effects of Government Spending
We study the effects of government spending by using a structural, large dimensional, dynamic factor model. We find that the government spending shock is non-fundamental for the variables commonly used in the structural VAR literature, so that its impulse response functions cannot be consistently estimated by means of a VAR. Government spending raises both consumption and investment, with no ev...
متن کاملFiscal Policy, Foresight and the Trade Balance in the U.S
This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the trade balance using a structural factor model. A fiscal policy shock worsens the trade balance and produces an appreciation of the domestic currency but the effects are quantitatively small. The findings match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model, although fiscal policy should not be considered one of the m...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2008
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1132442